In developing this scenario sketch, TERI and Shell have adopted a goal-oriented approach towards achieving net-zero emissions from the energy sector in India by 2050. It is rooted in stretching but realistic development dynamics today, but explores a goal-oriented way to achieve that ambition. We worked back in designing how this could occur, considering the realities of the situation today and taking into account realistic timescales for change. Although ambitious in its goal and assumptions, we believe today it is still a technically possible, but highly challenging pathway for the Indian economy. However, we believe the window for success is quickly closing and without significant action it may take longer for India to achieve a net-zero energy system. Of course, there are other possible paths for India to take towards a net-zero energy system – these depend on the technologies and policies the country prioritises.
This scenario sketch is more ambitious in its goal and assumptions than Shell’s Sky 1.5 scenario in some respects, but not all. For example, the India NZE scenario is more ambitious on the 2050 emissions profile of the energy system, but less ambitious on the role of CCS. Shell believes different places and sectors will move towards net-zero emissions at different paces, and all should move as fast as possible for society to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement. This scenario sketch is not intended to be projections or forecasts of the future. Shell scenarios, including scenarios in this document, are not Shell’s strategy or business plan. When developing Shell’s strategy, our scenarios are one of many variables that we consider. Ultimately, whether society meets its goals to decarbonize, is not within Shell’s control. While we intend to travel this journey in step with society, only governments can create the framework for success.
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Shell’s operating plan, outlook and budgets are forecasted for a ten-year period and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next ten years. Accordingly, Shell’s operating plans, outlooks, budgets and pricing assumptions do not reflect our net-zero emissions target. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shell’s operating plans, outlooks, budgets and pricing assumptions to reflect this movement.
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