Shell highlights India’s energy security and transition pathways in new scenarios sketch

The sketch outlines three possible futures shaped by geopolitics, digitalisation, and climate imperatives. Two scenarios - Archipelagos and Surge – reflect current global pressures, assessing energy security through the lens of national security, self-reliance, economic resilience, and technological advancement. The third scenario, Horizon, presents a normative scenario centred on climate and environmental security, aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Together, these scenarios offer a structured framework to support policymakers, businesses, and civil society in making informed choices to enhance India’s long‑term competitiveness and resilience through the energy transition.

"Releasing the Shell Scenario Sketch, Mansi Madan Tripathy, Senior Vice President, Shell Lubricants, APAC & Chairperson, Shell Group of Companies in India, said, said, “India stands at a defining moment in its energy transition. As demand rises alongside economic growth, both the challenge and the opportunity lie in strengthening energy security and resilience while advancing affordability and decarbonisation. The India Sketch is intended to broaden perspectives and support informed, system‑level decision‑making. By exploring multiple possible futures, we aim to contribute to building a more resilient, competitive, inclusive and net‑zero‑aligned energy system for the country. As a long‑term and trusted partner, Shell remains committed to delivering reliable, affordable and innovative energy solutions for India.”

Key insights

• India’s energy demand has grown nearly 40% over the past decade due to rapid economic and population growth. The country’s role in global energy will expand, with energy demand surpassing the USA in the 2040s and China in the 2060s.
• The pivot from imported (fossil-based) energy to domestic (renewables-based) energy is helping deliver energy independence and security, while supporting decarbonisation. Having over-achieved earlier climate goals, India is expected to announce a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to 2035, guided by a proposed seven point strategy shaping policy, planning and investment for the next decade.
• India has accelerated renewable energy deployment and electrification, with electricity’s share of energy demand now comparable to advanced economies. Solar and wind have grown from ~3% of the final electricity consumption in 2015 to over 20% today and will supply 59% or more across scenarios by 2050.
• Low-carbon fuels will play a major role in India’s future energy mix, especially for hard-to-electrify sectors, with strong domestic bioenergy potential and supportive policies driving future growth.
• Fossil fuels share in India’s energy demand peaks this decade; however, the pace of decline thereafter varies significantly across scenarios. That said, even with a declining share, the absolute volumes of fossil fuels continue to increase in the Surge and Archipelagos scenarios as India’s energy needs double over the next two to three decades.
• Natural gas and LNG play a key transition role across all scenarios. Gas demand rises 50% or more across scenarios in the next decade, supporting reliability during renewables scale-up, meeting industrial and domestic residential needs, and serving AI-driven electricity demand growth.
• Carbon removals become essential across all scenarios, whether through geological storage or natural sinks to address the remaining hardest and most expensive emissions to abate.
• On the energy end-use sectors, growth in industry and manufacturing drives greatest increase in future energy demand growth. Industrial energy efficiency improves but competing in the expanding global market for low carbon products and solutions requires deeper industrial transformation, supported by carbon pricing and policies to scale low carbon fuels like renewable hydrogen, and technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
• Transport electrification accelerates steadily, with EV adoption rising across vehicle categories displacing the equivalent of 41% of oil demand in 2050 in Archipelagos, 53% in Surge and 58% in Horizon compared to the same distance being travelled by internal combustion vehicles. Aviation and marine sectors gradually explore cleaner fuel options, with India advancing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) adoption and LNG as a lower carbon alternative to heavy fuel oil currently used in ships.
• Buildings shift towards cleaner energy, with electrification and natural gas use expanding in residential use, reflecting a broad shift away from traditional biomass. Energy use in commercial buildings rises two to four times across scenarios, driven by services and fast growing demand from data centres.

Sharing further insights on the report, Mallika Ishwaran, Chief Economist, Shell, said “India’s energy demand is accelerating and meeting it strategically and securely will require decisive choices and long-term vision. Our new Shell Scenarios Sketch, ‘India’s energy transition in a security‑focused age’, provides a structured view of those choices through three scenarios Archipelagos, Surge and Horizon shaped by geopolitics, digitalisation, and climate imperatives. By mapping these futures, we aim to help policymakers and businesses navigate uncertainty and strengthen India’s energy resilience in the decades ahead.”

5 Key areas of action for the next decade that emerge from the analysis:

1. Accelerating low-carbon electrification - By scaling renewable generation alongside flexibility solutions, strengthening transmission and distribution grids, and reforming electricity markets to incentivise coordinated investment across the power system
2. Driving electrification of road transport - Through targeted EV incentives, expanded charging and grid infrastructure, and support for domestic manufacturing and resilient EV supply chains.
3. Improving industrial competitiveness - By accelerating the deployment of low-carbon fuels and technologies, such as biofuels, renewable hydrogen and industrial CCS, to capture opportunities in the changing global industrial landscape
4. Maintain transition fuels where needed - To support an orderly transition, including the role of natural gas in balancing intermittent renewables and displacing traditional biomass in residential cooking.
5. Making carbon removals investible - By enabling geological and natural sinks through carbon markets and international mechanisms, supporting progress toward net zero emissions by 2070 while attracting finance and enhancing competitiveness

Read the full report here.

_{Disclaimer - UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD: The 2026 Energy Security Scenarios. Shell’s scenarios are not intended to be projections or forecasts of the future. Shell’s scenarios are not Shell’s strategy or business plan, nor are they intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes, and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Shell plc securities.}

Enquiries

Shell India : parul.suri@shell.com

Asia Pacific Media Relations: apac-media@shell.com

Cautionary Note: The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this publication “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this publication refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. The contents of websites referred to in this publication do not form part of this publication. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this publication that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F and any amendment thereto, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.